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To ask His Majesty's Government, further to the answer by Baroness Penn on 6 July (HL Deb col 1304) giving the relative gross domestic product (GDP) per head for Wales and the UK, what is the relative GDP per head for each region of England.
To ask His Majesty's Government, further to the answer by Baroness Penn on 6 July (HL Deb col 1304) giving the relative gross domestic product (GDP) per head for Wales and the UK, what is the relative GDP per head for each region of England.
The latest data published by the Office for National Statistics shows that in 2021, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per head, at current prices, was £25,665 for Wales, and £33,745 for the UK. The GDP per head for London (£59,855) and the South East (£36,174) was higher than the UK average. GDP per head in the North East (£24,575), the East Midlands (£27,505), the Yorkshire and the Humber (£27,692), the South West (£29,628), the North West (£29,681), and the East of England (£30,442), was lower than the UK average.
My Lords, the latest Office for National Statistics data show that in 2021 gross domestic product—GDP—per head, at current prices, was £25,665 for Wales and £33,745 for the UK. The UK Government have made significant interventions aimed at boosting GDP in Wales and across the UK, including the £4.8 billion levelling-up fund, the £2.6 billion UK shared prosperity fund and delivering on investment zones and freeports.
My Lords, the latest Office for National Statistics data show that in 2021 gross domestic product—GDP—per head, at current prices, was £25,665 for Wales and £33,745 for the UK. The UK Government have made significant interventions aimed at boosting GDP in Wales and across the UK, including the £4.8 billion levelling-up fund, the £2.6 billion UK shared prosperity fund and delivering on investment zones and freeports.
My Lords, perhaps I can provide a little reassurance to the noble Lord. Yes, the gap between GDP per head in Wales and the rest of the UK is too large, but Wales has had the highest growth in GDP per head since 2010 of all regions and nations across the UK, increasing by 15.7% compared with 6.9% across the UK. He talked about the Welsh Government and the UK Government working together. That is something that we have done successfully on city and growth deals across Wales that were developed jointly by the UK Government and the Welsh Government. This included £500 million for the Cardiff capital region and over £100 million in north Wales and Swansea. On his point about the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, he works hard and closely with the devolved Administrations—I know that is something he is very committed to—but I will take the noble Lord’s specific point away.
My Lords, perhaps I can provide a little reassurance to the noble Lord. Yes, the gap between GDP per head in Wales and the rest of the UK is too large, but Wales has had the highest growth in GDP per head since 2010 of all regions and nations across the UK, increasing by 15.7% compared with 6.9% across the UK. He talked about the Welsh Government and the UK Government working together. That is something that we have done successfully on city and growth deals across Wales that were developed jointly by the UK Government and the Welsh Government. This included £500 million for the Cardiff capital region and over £100 million in north Wales and Swansea. On his point about the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, he works hard and closely with the devolved Administrations—I know that is something he is very committed to—but I will take the noble Lord’s specific point away.
My Lords, do these figures not speak volumes? They underline the failure of successive Governments to close the gap between Wales and England. With the relevant economic levers being shared between Whitehall and Senedd Cymru, is it not essential that the two co-operate on these economic matters? Does the Minister appreciate how much this is undermined by the refusal of the Chief Secretary of the Treasury to attend the Senedd’s finance committee? Is she aware that her colleague, the noble Lord,
Lord Bourne, told that committee in Cardiff last week that a duty should be placed on the Chief Secretary to attend such committees when required? He said that
“if it needs putting on a statutory basis … that needs to happen”.
Does she agree?
I reassure the noble Lord that levelling up is not viewed through the prism that he says it is. When it comes to the looking at the needs in Wales and the funding to be matched to them, that is what we do through the Welsh fiscal framework. In the 2021 spending review, the largest annual block grant in real terms was assigned to Wales since the devolution Acts were passed.
I reassure the noble Lord that levelling up is not viewed through the prism that he says it is. When it comes to the looking at the needs in Wales and the funding to be matched to them, that is what we do through the Welsh fiscal framework. In the 2021 spending review, the largest annual block grant in real terms was assigned to Wales since the devolution Acts were passed.
May I invite the Minister to examine all the relevant indices of poverty and deprivation? She will find that Wales is mostly at the bottom, with 75% of the average, whereas the Government in levelling up concentrates simply on north-south. Should not the Government by contrast look also at the east-west divide?
The statistics that the noble Baroness refers to are more experimental than the ones that I used in my Answer, but they are being refined all the time and they can be subject to greater volatility due to the smaller size that they represent.
However, the Government are delivering on their commitment to replace European funding in Wales. As I set out in my earlier Answer, that is just one of the UK Government’s investments in Wales that recognise its great potential to grow even further.
The statistics that the noble Baroness refers to are more experimental than the ones that I used in my Answer, but they are being refined all the time and they can be subject to greater volatility due to the smaller size that they represent.
However, the Government are delivering on their commitment to replace European funding in Wales. As I set out in my earlier Answer, that is just one of the UK Government’s investments in Wales that recognise its great potential to grow even further.
My Lords, for around 20 years, west Wales and the valleys qualified for EU Objective 1 funding, precisely because our GDP was among the lowest in the EU. With the figures for Wales published in May showing a decrease of 2.1% in GDP over the longer term in Wales, compared with the figures for the rest of the UK showing an increase of 2%, are we in Wales, in the Minister’s opinion, facing a short-term blip, or are we heading for a gradual return to our pre-Objective 1 status, as a result of the loss of EU funding?
The classification of these matters is for the ONS, and I shall get the ONS to write to the noble Lord.
The classification of these matters is for the ONS, and I shall get the ONS to write to the noble Lord.
My Lords, talking of figures speaking volumes, the Minister will be aware that last month the annual fraud indicator for the United Kingdom, which of course includes Scotland and Wales as well as England and Northern Ireland, assessed it at £219 billion. Are those fraudulent transactions, the muling of that money and the transfer of it from shell company to shell company, and the export of it in crypto assets, counted as economic activity and therefore aggregated into GDP? When the money comes back into the country to buy houses and land, works of art and other things, is it counted as inward investment?
Just to reassure the noble Lord with regard to Wales, in the first two rounds of the levelling-up fund, £330 million has been invested so far. That exceeds the commitment that 5% of those funds would be invested in Wales, but we always seek to improve our processes around those issues, and I shall happily commit to working with colleagues in the Department for Levelling Up to make sure that we build on the success that we have had so far with this fund.
Just to reassure the noble Lord with regard to Wales, in the first two rounds of the levelling-up fund, £330 million has been invested so far. That exceeds the commitment that 5% of those funds would be invested in Wales, but we always seek to improve our processes around those issues, and I shall happily commit to working with colleagues in the Department for Levelling Up to make sure that we build on the success that we have had so far with this fund.
My Lords, the Government’s approach to levelling-up funding has forced local authorities throughout the UK to compete in a process that lacks any published criteria. In the second round of allocations earlier this year, local communities across each of the four nations of the UK, including Wrexham, Moray, Bolsover and Belfast, each had bids rejected without any public explanation. Ahead of the third round of levelling-up funding, will the Minister work with ministerial colleagues, the devolved Governments and local authorities to improve the transparency of the bidding process so that cities, towns and villages across the UK can have access to funding that is both fair and seen to be fair?
My Lords, the UK has an excellent track record in delivering offshore wind, and I am sure that that will continue. As I have said, we are investing across Wales, and that includes two freeports in Wales—the Celtic Freeport and the Anglesey Freeport, which will both be backed by policy and planning permissions, as well as up to £26 million in funding in each area.
My Lords, the UK has an excellent track record in delivering offshore wind, and I am sure that that will continue. As I have said, we are investing across Wales, and that includes two freeports in Wales—the Celtic Freeport and the Anglesey Freeport, which will both be backed by policy and planning permissions, as well as up to £26 million in funding in each area.
My Lords, will the Minister take forward with much more vigour the idea of Celtic Sea offshore wind, which can only really be built in places such as Port Talbot, where there is deep water and lots of land? That might help redress some of the economic disasters that other noble Lords have spoken about.
My Lords, I agree with the noble Lord about the importance of investing in prevention. That is why we have invested in our education system, and we have seen our educational outputs improve under this Government. It is why we are investing in prevention in our NHS. We also need to capture the importance of other aspects that contribute to our country when we look at these matters. That is why we are looking at incorporating measures when it comes to well-being, for example, and not just looking at the narrow measures of GDP.
My Lords, I agree with the noble Lord about the importance of investing in prevention. That is why we have invested in our education system, and we have seen our educational outputs improve under this Government. It is why we are investing in prevention in our NHS. We also need to capture the importance of other aspects that contribute to our country when we look at these matters. That is why we are looking at incorporating measures when it comes to well-being, for example, and not just looking at the narrow measures of GDP.
My Lords, as long as there is a situation in government where most of the money spent is on emergency situations and coping with poverty and very little is spent on prevention of poverty and skilling people away from poverty, we will continue arguing about GDP and whether it is high or low in Wales or England. We do not spend money on dismantling poverty—we spend it on making the poor as comfortable as possible.
It is hard to tell from the other side whether there is a success story or not when it comes to Wales. I think that the best success comes when the UK and Welsh Governments work together in the interests of the people of Wales, and the record that we can see is testament to that.
It is hard to tell from the other side whether there is a success story or not when it comes to Wales. I think that the best success comes when the UK and Welsh Governments work together in the interests of the people of Wales, and the record that we can see is testament to that.
My Lords, if the positive economic figures that the Minister cited for Wales are correct, is that because we have a Welsh Labour Government?
I can give the noble Lord that assurance.
I can give the noble Lord that assurance.
My Lords, can I ask a question where I think, for once, the noble Baroness, who is an excellent Minister, might be able to give me a positive answer? The Advocate-General for Scotland has agreed, at my request, to instruct his officials to investigate ultra vires expenditure by the Scottish Government. That is a great step forward. Can the Minister give an assurance that her officials in the Treasury will work co-operatively with the Advocate-General’s officials?
To ask His Majesty’s Government what are their latest figures for the gross domestic product per head of population for (1) Wales, and (2) the United Kingdom.
To ask His Majesty’s Government what are their latest figures for the gross domestic product per head of population for (1) Wales, and (2) the United Kingdom.
My Lords, the latest Office for National Statistics data show that in 2021 gross domestic product—GDP—per head, at current prices, was £25,665 for Wales and £33,745 for the UK. The UK Government have made significant interventions aimed at boosting GDP in Wales and across the UK, including the £4.8 billion levelling-up fund, the £2.6 billion UK shared prosperity fund and delivering on investment zones and freeports.
To ask His Majesty's Government what steps they are taking to return GDP to the level it was at prior to the increased cost of living.
To ask His Majesty's Government what steps they are taking to return GDP to the level it was at prior to the increased cost of living.
The Government appreciates that many businesses are exposed to increased energy costs, driven by global factors. While GDP remains (in real terms) above its level a year ago, GDP fell in Q3 and underlying growth has slowed.
The Government has taken swift action to tackle the rising cost of energy caused by – in the most part – Putin’s illegal war in Ukraine.
The Autumn Statement, delivered by the Chancellor, has demonstrated the Government’s commitment to raising productivity and delivering sustainable growth. This will be underpinned by economic stability and sound public finances.
While there are no quick fixes; our long-term approach will provide the stable environment that businesses need to plan, invest, and grow and ensure that our public services have the resources they need to support the most vulnerable in our society.
To ask His Majesty's Government what estimate they have made of the increase in GDP per head resulting from a 50,000 increase in the number of work permits if, on average, 90 per cent of applicants continue to be accompanied by one dependant.
To ask His Majesty's Government what estimate they have made of the increase in GDP per head resulting from a 50,000 increase in the number of work permits if, on average, 90 per cent of applicants continue to be accompanied by one dependant.
The independent Office for Budget Responsibility provides forecasts of the overall impact on economic growth of government policy, including those resulting from immigration policy. The next forecast will be provided on the 17th of November alongside the Autumn Statement.
It is not appropriate to provide commentary on specific scenarios, but the government does consider relevant impacts in assessing potential changes to immigration policy.
To ask Her Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the change in UK GDP since December 2019; and what assessment they have made of how this compares to (1) the US, (2) France, and (3) Canada, in the same period.
To ask Her Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the change in UK GDP since December 2019; and what assessment they have made of how this compares to (1) the US, (2) France, and (3) Canada, in the same period.
According to data from the independent Office for National Statistics (ONS), the change in real GDP from the three months to December 2019 to the three months to December 2021 (the latest available quarterly data) was -0.4%. This leaves the UK in the middle of the pack compared to other G7. The below table depicts this using publicly available data in the same period for real GDP in the rest of the G7.
3m to Dec 2021 relative to 3m to Dec 2019 | Real GDP change (%) |
US | 3.2 |
France | 0.9 |
Canada | 0.1 |
Italy | -0.3 |
UK | -0.4 |
Japan | -0.4 |
Germany | -1.1 |
However, the ONS has also advised that it is difficult to compare real GDP during the pandemic, due to differences in measurement of output in health and education. The ONS has noted that estimates of nominal GDP are more comparable. In nominal GDP terms, for the same period the UK is ranked 3rd compared to others in the G7 (see the below table).
3m to Dec 2021 relative to 3m to Dec 2019 | Nominal GDP change (%) |
US | 10.7 |
Canada | 10.7 |
UK | 4.9 |
France | 4.3 |
Germany | 4.3 |
Italy | 0.9 |
Japan | -1.7 |
To ask Her Majesty's Government whether UK GDP was lower at the end of 2021 than at the end of December 2019.
To ask Her Majesty's Government whether UK GDP was lower at the end of 2021 than at the end of December 2019.
The independent Office for National Statistics (ONS) is responsible for measuring UK GDP. In the three months to December 2021 UK real GDP was 0.4% below its level in the three months to December 2019, where the economy was affected by restrictions necessitated by the Omicron wave at the end of the year. The ONS also produce monthly GDP figures, which show that in January 2022 real GDP was 0.8% above the level prior to the pandemic in February 2020.
To ask Her Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the UK's total GDP in December 2021 compared to February 2020, relative to the other G7 nations.
To ask Her Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the UK's total GDP in December 2021 compared to February 2020, relative to the other G7 nations.
Her Majesty’s government regularly looks at UK economic growth in the context of growth in other advanced economies, including those in the G7. The Office for National Statistics publishes UK figures monthly, quarterly, and annually.
There are different metrics by which international GDP growth rates can be compared, varying by the time and reference period used. In the case of our G7 peers, as well as the UK, only Canada produces monthly GDP data. Monthly comparisons are therefore not possible for all members of the G7. International comparisons of economic growth are possible for all G7 members at both quarterly and yearly frequencies. This information is presented below.
Real GDP growth | Monthly | Quarterly | Quarterly | Quarterly | Annually |
Country | February 2020 to November 2021 | Q3 2021 Quarter on Year % growth | Q4 2021 Quarter on Year % growth | Q4 2019 to Q4 2021 | 2021 |
Canada | 0.2% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 0.2% | 4.7% |
France | N/A | 3.5% | 5.4% | 0.9% | 7.0% |
Germany | N/A | 2.9% | 1.4% | -1.5% | 2.8% |
Italy | N/A | 4.0% | 6.4% | -0.5% | 6.4% |
Japan | N/A | 1.2% | 0.7% | -1.9% | 1.7% |
UK | 0.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | -0.5% | 7.5% |
US | N/A | 4.9% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 5.7% |
Source: Refinitv DataStream, HMT Calculations
Comparing monthly to the latest data available in both countries, November, the ratio of monthly real (seasonally adjusted) GDP between February 2020 and December 2021 was 0.2, in both the UK and Canada. Canada is yet to release December monthly data.
The UK’s 2021 Q3 quarter-on-year growth rate was 7.0%, compared to the US (4.9%), Italy and Canada (both 4%), France (3.5%), Germany (2.9%) and Japan (1.1%).
The ratio of real GDP from Q4 2019 to Q4 2021 in the UK was -0.5%, compared to the US (3.1%), France (0.9%), Canada (0.2%), Italy (-0.5%), Germany (-1.5%) and Japan (-1.9%).
Annually, the UK’s growth rate in 2021 was 7.5%, compared to France (7.0%), Italy (6.4%), the US (5.7%), Canada (4.7%), Germany (2.8%) and Japan (1.7%).