My hon. Friend held an Adjournment debate recently which I was pleased to respond to. We discussed the status of Kettering general hospital and the foundation trust that runs it. He is correct that it is discussing with NHS Improvement the development of a business case for an urgent care hub, and this is being considered in the context of the wider sustainability and transformation plan. Mr Speaker, I accept your admonishment in respect of my answer to the previous question. Of course, one of the primary solutions to winter excess deaths is the flu vaccination programme.

Once again, I thank my hon. Friend for his persistent campaigning on behalf of Kettering general hospital. It is a very busy hospital under a great deal of pressure, and I know that people work very hard there. The Under-Secretary of State for Health, my hon. Friend the Member for Ipswich (Ben Gummer), who has responsibility for hospitals, met campaigners from Kettering recently to discuss this issue, and I will bring the matter up with Monitor as well.

Ensuring that hardworking families and businesses across the country have secure, affordable energy supplies they can rely on is our top priority.

We have worked with National Grid to put in place an effective plan which worked well last winter. National Grid has everything they need to manage the system this winter.

National Grid have secured 2.55GW of flexible generation in reserve for use this winter. With this in place, National Grid forecast a margin of 5.1% for this winter, which will ensure a high level of energy security even in the toughest system conditions.

Yes, we have. The capacity gap was actually smaller at the start of the last decade, but of course we have modelled for these things, and crucially, with National Grid, we have ensured that power stations are on standby to secure energy supplies this winter.

The hon. Gentleman is clearly spending a great deal of time studying these methods. Given the advice, which I respect, from scientists across government, all the signs point to the fact that the changes he is talking about are influenced by climate change. That is one reason why we have had more precipitation deposited in the country and had the rainiest January in a quarter of a millennium.

Our Department’s clear view is that head teachers should keep schools open during adverse weather conditions unless it is really not possible to do so. Our advice to schools makes it clear that they now have a great deal of flexibility to work creatively; for example, bringing together classes with teachers and volunteers working together.

I entirely agree with my hon. Friend’s views, and I know that he has taken a keen interest in this issue. It is a responsibility for all individual schools and head teachers to keep their schools open in adverse weather conditions. The Department has issued clear guidance. We are conscious that the unnecessary closure of schools causes disruption to children’s education, and to parents and to the economy.

National Grid in their Winter Outlook 2013-14 report have stated:

“Our peak weather corrected electricity demand forecast for this winter is 54.8 GW; this is our demand forecast should the weather be the same as long term average weather conditions. In any winter, however, there are milder spells and colder spells which drive fluctuations in demand around the weather corrected demand forecast. We forecast the peak Average Cold Spell (ACS) electricity demand to be 56.3 GW this winter.”

“For this winter, taking the latest data into account, our central forecast of electricity margin against peak (ACS) demand is 5%, broadly in line with the level published in Ofgem's Capacity Adequacy analysis in June. If, however, we have average weather throughout the winter, our central forecast of margin is 8%.”

[holding answer 22 November 2012]: The information is as follows:

Oil

DECC places obligations on companies supplying petroleum products in the inland market requiring them to hold stocks of crude oil and its products equivalent to a minimum of 67.5 days of annual daily inland consumption using powers under the Energy Act 1976. These are emergency stocks, separate to commercial stocks held by companies, and are available to release to the market in the event of supply disruptions. At the end of August 2012 (the latest data available), the UK held almost 83 days of gasoline stocks, over 75 days of middle distillates (including diesel and aviation fuel) and almost 500 days of fuel oil.

Gas

For this winter 2012-13, seasonal demands for gas and electricity are forecast to be comparatively lower, in general, than recent years with prices strongly favouring coal rather than gas for fuelling power generation. For gas, last winter’s experience of supply flexibility through increased use of import capacity and storage is expected to continue. However, there is greater uncertainty over liquefied natural gas (LNG) levels as Japan is expected to continue to draw cargoes to the Pacific basin over the medium to short term. For electricity, margins are similar to last year and are historically high, though it is possible that for a one in 20 demand scenario high interconnector exports may lead to low reserve levels.

Coal

We anticipate no difficulties with coal supplies over the winter period.