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To ask His Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the impact of investment in artificial intelligence data centres on inflationary pressures in the UK economy.
To ask His Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the impact of investment in artificial intelligence data centres on inflationary pressures in the UK economy.
HM Treasury continuously monitors developments in the economy, including the drivers of inflation and wider cost-of-living pressures. The inflationary impact of investment in AI data centres will depend on its scale, timing and interaction with wider supply conditions. While investment in AI data centres could in principle add to inflationary pressures, we have not seen evidence to date of a significant impact in the aggregate inflation data.
The Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) forecast that inflation was due to return close to target in Q2 this year, before the impact of the war in Iran began to increase motor fuel prices.
The Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of England has responsibility for controlling inflation, and the Government has full confidence that it will sustainably return inflation to the 2 per cent target. The Government supports the Bank of England through responsible fiscal policy, alongside targeted support for the cost of living. The OBR forecast that government policy will reduce CPI inflation by 0.4 percentage points in 2026/27.
To ask His Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the impact of moving levies from electricity bills to general taxation on reducing inflation and lowering the Government’s borrowing costs.
To ask His Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the impact of moving levies from electricity bills to general taxation on reducing inflation and lowering the Government’s borrowing costs.
At last year’s Budget, the Chancellor took the decision to fund 75% of the domestic share of the Renewables Obligation through the Exchequer and ended the levy-funded Energy Company Obligation. These decisions took on average £150 of costs off household energy bills and are forecast to reduce inflation by over 0.2 percentage points in 2026/27.
The Government’s fiscal plans – which factor in the impacts of the Chancellor’s decisions on levies – are bringing down borrowing and debt, keeping the public finances on a sustainable path and supporting the Bank of England to keep inflation as low as possible. According to the IMF, between 2025-2030, the UK will be reducing borrowing more than any other G7 country.
The Government keeps all taxes under review and is introducing a new framework to subject levies to enhanced scrutiny and ensure they are affordable, value for money and do not impose unnecessary costs.
To ask His Majesty’s Government what assessment they have made of the estimate in the International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook, Global Economy in the Shadow of War, published on 14 April, that the UK will have the lowest per capita growth and the joint highest inflation rate in the G7 this year.
To ask His Majesty’s Government what assessment they have made of the estimate in the International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook, Global Economy in the Shadow of War, published on 14 April, that the UK will have the lowest per capita growth and the joint highest inflation rate in the G7 this year.
My Lords, we did not start this war, but it affects us. The IMF’s updated forecasts build on its
judgment that the UK is more exposed to energy price shocks than our counterparts—a problem this Government are tackling but which the previous Government failed to address in 14 years. The IMF has described our plan as the appropriate response and forecasts that the UK will be the fastest-growing European G7 economy this year and next.
My Lords, we did not start this war, but it affects us. The IMF’s updated forecasts build on its
judgment that the UK is more exposed to energy price shocks than our counterparts—a problem this Government are tackling but which the previous Government failed to address in 14 years. The IMF has described our plan as the appropriate response and forecasts that the UK will be the fastest-growing European G7 economy this year and next.
My Lords, we did not start this war, but it affects us. The IMF’s updated forecasts build on its
judgment that the UK is more exposed to energy price shocks than our counterparts—a problem this Government are tackling but which the previous Government failed to address in 14 years. The IMF has described our plan as the appropriate response and forecasts that the UK will be the fastest-growing European G7 economy this year and next.
To ask His Majesty’s Government what assessment they have made of the estimate in the International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook, Global Economy in the Shadow of War, published on 14 April, that the UK will have the lowest per capita growth and the joint highest inflation rate in the G7 this year.
No, I do not think she is, because the spring forecast showed precisely that: that Britain is well placed to weather this conflict. Inflation was at 3% and it was set to fall to target; borrowing was set to fall more over this Parliament than in any other G7 economy; GDP per capita was forecast to rise by 5.6% over this Parliament, compared with a fall of 0.2% in the previous Parliament; and we had increased headroom to over £23 billion. As I say, all these things mean we are well placed to weather this conflict. On the actual outturn data, last week’s figures show that the economy grew faster than expected in the three months to February, growth for the three months to January was upgraded, and yesterday’s labour market figures for February showed unemployment coming down and real wages continuing to rise.
No, I do not think she is, because the spring forecast showed precisely that: that Britain is well placed to weather this conflict. Inflation was at 3% and it was set to fall to target; borrowing was set to fall more over this Parliament than in any other G7 economy; GDP per capita was forecast to rise by 5.6% over this Parliament, compared with a fall of 0.2% in the previous Parliament; and we had increased headroom to over £23 billion. As I say, all these things mean we are well placed to weather this conflict. On the actual outturn data, last week’s figures show that the economy grew faster than expected in the three months to February, growth for the three months to January was upgraded, and yesterday’s labour market figures for February showed unemployment coming down and real wages continuing to rise.
I salute the Minister for his stout defence and robust response, but it is not altogether shared by the gilt markets: witness our highest borrowing costs for 18 years. It is not just the IMF but the OECD—both have cut their growth forecast for the UK by a greater margin than for any other G7 country. Yes, they flag up the openness of our economy and the gas-intensive nature of our energy mix, but they also point to the UK’s zero per capita growth throughout the second half of last year. With inflation now rising, is the Chancellor not premature in making repeated claims of having built stability and resilience in our economy?
I am very happy to agree with the noble Lord on the first part of his question: as I have said already, GDP per capita at the time of the spring forecast was forecast to rise by 5.6% over this Parliament. That compares with a fall of 0.2% in the previous Parliament—the worst Parliament on record for living standards. On welfare spending, as he knows, the previous Government increased welfare spending by £88 billion.
I am very happy to agree with the noble Lord on the first part of his question: as I have said already, GDP per capita at the time of the spring forecast was forecast to rise by 5.6% over this Parliament. That compares with a fall of 0.2% in the previous Parliament—the worst Parliament on record for living standards. On welfare spending, as he knows, the previous Government increased welfare spending by £88 billion.
My Lords, does the Minister agree that the only genuine way to look at the prosperity of our citizens in this country is GDP per capita? Does he also agree that one of the big detractors of growth in GDP per capita is the growing and significant welfare spend? If not, why not?
The noble Baroness is absolutely right to point to the need for economic resilience. As she knows, we must do more on economic security so that the UK does not continue to be more exposed to energy price shocks than our counterparts are. Since the election, we have invested in clean homegrown energy—renewables and nuclear. Yesterday, the Chancellor announced steps to go further, harnessing our domestic supply of oil and gas production from the North Sea, further removing barriers to new renewables investment, and reforming our energy system by further weakening link between high gas prices and electricity prices. The noble Baroness asked specifically about BICS; she will know that the consultation on scheme design and eligibility was published last week.
The noble Baroness is absolutely right to point to the need for economic resilience. As she knows, we must do more on economic security so that the UK does not continue to be more exposed to energy price shocks than our counterparts are. Since the election, we have invested in clean homegrown energy—renewables and nuclear. Yesterday, the Chancellor announced steps to go further, harnessing our domestic supply of oil and gas production from the North Sea, further removing barriers to new renewables investment, and reforming our energy system by further weakening link between high gas prices and electricity prices. The noble Baroness asked specifically about BICS; she will know that the consultation on scheme design and eligibility was published last week.
My Lords, the Government keep looking in the rearview mirror. The IMF report and today’s inflation numbers are telling us that forecasts made in January essentially now go into the bin, and what we need are policies to deal with uncertainty and provide resilience. The new BICS provides energy-intensive industries with some benefits, but no money will flow for a year. When will firms know what that money will
be and when they will get it so that they can plan? Is anything going to be put in place for food and agriculture? We are seeing a real rise in food prices and potential food shortages. Small businesses are, frankly, on the brink. Are there new policies to come forward that will provide the resilience we need?
My noble friend is absolutely right. The economy, at the time of the spring forecast, showed that we are well placed going into this conflict. Inflation was at 3% and is set to fall to target—a much lower starting point than when Russia illegally invaded Ukraine. Borrowing was set to fall more over this Parliament than in any other G7 economy. We had increased headroom for over £23 billion, giving us the buffer to respond to these shocks, and GDP per capita was forecast to rise. Therefore, my noble friend is absolutely right. Outturn data for February, the final month before this conflict began, showed that the economy grew faster than anyone was expecting.
My noble friend is absolutely right. The economy, at the time of the spring forecast, showed that we are well placed going into this conflict. Inflation was at 3% and is set to fall to target—a much lower starting point than when Russia illegally invaded Ukraine. Borrowing was set to fall more over this Parliament than in any other G7 economy. We had increased headroom for over £23 billion, giving us the buffer to respond to these shocks, and GDP per capita was forecast to rise. Therefore, my noble friend is absolutely right. Outturn data for February, the final month before this conflict began, showed that the economy grew faster than anyone was expecting.
My Lords, is it not the case that inflation, economic growth and living standards were improving until we had the problem with Iran? Is it also not the case that, as soon as that problem has gone, the Government have the policies to drive the economy?
I absolutely confirm to the noble Lord all three of those points. As he knows, the price cap is giving households certainty on their bills until July, ahead of the winter months. As we respond to this crisis, we must absolutely learn from the mistakes of the past, some of which he mentioned. The previous Government pushed up borrowing, interest rates, inflation and mortgage costs with an unfunded, untargeted package of support under Liz Truss, and they gave the
most support to the wealthiest households. We will not repeat the mistakes of the previous Government. We are planning for every eventuality so that we can keep costs down for everyone and provide support for those who need it most, acting within our fiscal rules, as the noble Lord said, to keep inflation and interest rates as low as possible.
I absolutely confirm to the noble Lord all three of those points. As he knows, the price cap is giving households certainty on their bills until July, ahead of the winter months. As we respond to this crisis, we must absolutely learn from the mistakes of the past, some of which he mentioned. The previous Government pushed up borrowing, interest rates, inflation and mortgage costs with an unfunded, untargeted package of support under Liz Truss, and they gave the
most support to the wealthiest households. We will not repeat the mistakes of the previous Government. We are planning for every eventuality so that we can keep costs down for everyone and provide support for those who need it most, acting within our fiscal rules, as the noble Lord said, to keep inflation and interest rates as low as possible.
My Lords, I encourage the Financial Secretary not to become mesmerised by IMF forecasts. The British economy has proved remarkably resilient over the past 18 years in the face of a succession of shocks. Generally, the Government have got into difficulty when the Treasury and the Bank have done too much rather than too little. Can he confirm that any interventions will be targeted and that the Government will maintain their inflation target and stick to their fiscal rules?
Yes, and we are doing most of that, but the noble Baroness is opposing most of it. She said that we need to pursue a growth path. She will know that one of the most important things for growth is keeping inflation and interest rates as low as possible, but her party has unfunded proposals to deal with this crisis that would stoke inflation and put up interest rates. Exactly the wrong thing to do now would be to have a knee-jerk response to this crisis that would put household finances at risk. During the last energy shock, the previous Government got the response completely wrong, which meant higher inflation, higher interest rates and higher taxes. We will not repeat those mistakes.
Yes, and we are doing most of that, but the noble Baroness is opposing most of it. She said that we need to pursue a growth path. She will know that one of the most important things for growth is keeping inflation and interest rates as low as possible, but her party has unfunded proposals to deal with this crisis that would stoke inflation and put up interest rates. Exactly the wrong thing to do now would be to have a knee-jerk response to this crisis that would put household finances at risk. During the last energy shock, the previous Government got the response completely wrong, which meant higher inflation, higher interest rates and higher taxes. We will not repeat those mistakes.
My Lords, the economic forecasts set out by the IMF and, indeed, by the noble Lord, Lord Londesborough, are very concerning from a national standpoint. Party passions aside, I believe that we must pursue a national growth path in the national interest. That needs to include a reduction, not an increase, in regulation, especially in building and planning; a cut in welfare spending, as we have heard; support for enterprise; and full utilisation of our energy resources. Does the Minister agree with that?
The noble Lord pointed to some forecasts that are being made, but he then drew the wrong conclusion. I point him to the conflict going on in Iran: that is not a war that we started, but it will affect us. As I have already said, we went into this crisis with the economy well prepared to weather it, which we are doing. The outturn figures for last week showed that the economy grew faster than expected in the three months to February. When the data for January came out, the noble Lord asked me a topical Question, which I answered. That data was upgraded this week for that exact month, but he did not mention that. He keeps talking about one month, but one month comes after another—they tend to add up. The outturn figures from before the conflict began showed that the economy was growing faster than anyone expected. Of course this war will have an impact on our economy, and it is this Government’s responsibility to ensure that working people weather that in the right way.
The noble Lord pointed to some forecasts that are being made, but he then drew the wrong conclusion. I point him to the conflict going on in Iran: that is not a war that we started, but it will affect us. As I have already said, we went into this crisis with the economy well prepared to weather it, which we are doing. The outturn figures for last week showed that the economy grew faster than expected in the three months to February. When the data for January came out, the noble Lord asked me a topical Question, which I answered. That data was upgraded this week for that exact month, but he did not mention that. He keeps talking about one month, but one month comes after another—they tend to add up. The outturn figures from before the conflict began showed that the economy was growing faster than anyone expected. Of course this war will have an impact on our economy, and it is this Government’s responsibility to ensure that working people weather that in the right way.
As well as the OECD report, the respected EY Item Club has said that the economy will flatline in the second and third quarters, leading to a real risk of recession. Deloitte has said that business confidence is at its lowest since Covid, and unemployment is thus now expected to rise to 5.8% by 2027. One of the reasons for that is the Employment Rights Act. The Prime Minister may not respect employees’ rights but business does, and business is stopping hiring for that reason. Given the war, is it not time to soften the effects of the Employment Rights Act?
Clearly, we need a welfare system that works. No one believes that the system that we inherited is working. It abandoned too many people to a life on benefits, wrote off too many people as too sick to work and condemned too many children to be too poor to eat. That is why we are reforming the welfare system.
Clearly, we need a welfare system that works. No one believes that the system that we inherited is working. It abandoned too many people to a life on benefits, wrote off too many people as too sick to work and condemned too many children to be too poor to eat. That is why we are reforming the welfare system.
My Lords, I declare an interest as a recipient of very considerable welfare payments in the form of my old-age pension and my wife’s old-age pension. The whole discussion about cutting welfare seems to leave out the very substantial chunk of welfare that goes to those of us who are retired. Does the Minister think that all the effort in cutting welfare has to be on the young, or does he think that any discussion about cutting welfare has to include the old as well?
To ask His Majesty's Government what plans they have, if any, to expand the Bank of England's remit to include focusing on growth and the overall health of the economy, as well as bearing down on inflation.
To ask His Majesty's Government what plans they have, if any, to expand the Bank of England's remit to include focusing on growth and the overall health of the economy, as well as bearing down on inflation.
The Government has no plans to change the remit of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).
Subject to maintaining price stability, the MPC’s secondary objective is to support the economic policy of the Government, which is to “restore broad based and resilient growth built on strong and secure foundations”. The MPC regularly states that it sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target “in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment”.
Low and stable inflation is essential for long-term economic growth, so the MPC has the Government’s full support as it acts to return inflation to target sustainably.
To ask His Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the impact on household budgets of the reduction of the rate of inflation from 3.4 per cent in December to the current rate of 3 per cent.
To ask His Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the impact on household budgets of the reduction of the rate of inflation from 3.4 per cent in December to the current rate of 3 per cent.
Inflation fell to 3 per cent in January 2026. Wages rose faster than inflation in Q4 2025, indicating that real wages are growing, which will support household purchasing power and ease pressure on household budgets.
The Government welcomes the fall in inflation and is committed to improving living standards for everyone, in every part of the UK. We recognise that the cost of living remains too high, which is why, at the last Budget, we took action to bear down on prices and help ease the cost of living pressures for people by targeting everyday expenses. This includes taking on average £150 of costs off household energy bills from April 2026, expanding the £150 Warm Home Discount to 6 million lower income households, freezing rail fares and NHS prescription fees, and extending the 5p fuel duty cut until the end of August 2026.
To ask His Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of recent economic analysis concerning the UK’s inflation outlook and associated risks to economic growth; and how this is being factored into fiscal and economic planning.
To ask His Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of recent economic analysis concerning the UK’s inflation outlook and associated risks to economic growth; and how this is being factored into fiscal and economic planning.
Forecasting the UK economy, including the outlook for inflation and economic growth, is the responsibility of the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). The government set out how the economic outlook is factored into fiscal and economic planning it its autumn budget published on 26 November. Key points include:
- According to the OBR, inflation is past its peak and measures taken by the government will reduce inflation by 0.4 percentage points in 2026-27, including by lowering energy bills by around £150 from next April for the average household, and freezing regulated rail fares and prescription charges.
- The Chancellor has reaffirmed the Bank of England’s 2% Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) inflation target.
- While the Bank has overall responsibility for returning inflation to target, the government is also fully committed to tackling inflation. The most effective lever to achieve this is through responsible fiscal strategy.
- Stable prices give businesses the confidence to invest and supports the independent BoE Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), who have cut Bank Rate six times since the election.
To ask His Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of reports that UK inflation slowed to 3.6 per cent in October, and what the implications are for policies aimed at reducing cost-of-living pressures for households and businesses.
To ask His Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of reports that UK inflation slowed to 3.6 per cent in October, and what the implications are for policies aimed at reducing cost-of-living pressures for households and businesses.
The OBR expects inflation to have peaked in Q3 2025, and that it will fall progressively to the Bank of England’s 2% target in Q1 2027. The Bank of England has overall responsibility for controlling inflation and beyond this, the government is targeting inflation at its source, by bearing down on everyday expenses such as energy bills, transport and childcare costs to ease cost of living pressures.
Taken together the OBR’s forecast shows government policy will reduce CPI inflation by 0.4 percentage points in 2026/27. This is the biggest near-term reduction in inflation due to government policy ever forecast by the OBR at a single fiscal event, outside of a crisis.
To ask His Majesty's Government what steps they are taking to reduce inflation.
To ask His Majesty's Government what steps they are taking to reduce inflation.
The Bank of England has the responsibility of controlling inflation, and the Government fully supports them as they take action to return inflation sustainably to 2%. Alongside this, the Government is maintaining stable public finances, reducing borrowing year after year to ease pressure on prices. Borrowing is set to fall by almost a percentage point as a share of GDP this year compared with last, and by a further 0.8ppts next year. The Chancellor has asked departments to prioritise reducing inflation when developing policies for the Autumn Budget, ensuring decisions support stability and long-term growth.
The Government is supporting households with targeted measures to ease pressure on budgets. This includes increasing the Universal Credit Standard Allowance, extending the Household Support Fund with £1 billion a year for crisis support through councils, and expanding Free School Meals to all children with a parent on Universal Credit from 2026. The Warm Home Discount will be expanded to cover around 6 million households.
To ask His Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the increase of the inflation rate to 3.6 per cent, and what steps they are taking to manage the effects on consumers.
To ask His Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the increase of the inflation rate to 3.6 per cent, and what steps they are taking to manage the effects on consumers.
The independent Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England are responsible for controlling inflation. The Government fully supports them as they take action to sustainably return inflation to the 2% target.
To ask His Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the latest consumer price index figures; and what plans they have to address these figures.
To ask His Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the latest consumer price index figures; and what plans they have to address these figures.
The OBR, in their Spring forecast, expect inflation to fall back towards the Bank of England's 2% target in 2026.
The Bank of England has the responsibility of controlling inflation and the Government fully supports them as they take action to sustainably return inflation to the 2% target. The independent Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at the Bank of England has cut Bank Rate four times since August as underlying inflationary pressure has eased.
Lords motion to take note of the first report of the Economic Affairs Committee on National debt: it's time for tough decisions (HL 5). Agreed to on question.
Lords motion to take note of the first report of the Economic Affairs Committee on National debt: it's time for tough decisions (HL 5). Agreed to on question.