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Demographics

Answer

The latest population projections produced by the Government Actuary's Department show that although the population of England is projected to rise by nearly 7 million people between 2004 and 2031, the trends are different depending on the age group. In particular, the population of children of approximately primary school age (5–10) has been falling since 1999 and is projected to continue falling until 2008. The population of children of compulsory secondary school age (11–15) started to fall in 2005 and is expected to continue falling until 2014.

Population in England at mid-year by age at last birthday (thousand)
	2004	2010	2015	2020	2025	2031
Age 5–10	3,645	3,480	3,591	3,601	3,683	3,703
Age 11–15	3,252	3,032	2,881	3,008	3,004	3,086
Age 16–18	1,957	1,942	1,837	1,772	1,821	1,848
All ages	50,094	51,715	53.009	54,344	55,594	56,832
Source: Government Actuary's Department 2004-based principal population projections

The Department uses these population projections (along with annual schools census data and estimates of participation in education for non-compulsory ages) to produce pupil projections by age and school type to 2020. These pupil projections are used by the Department to inform the setting of teacher training places.The impact of demographic changes will also be considered by the Department in work on revenue funding as part of the spending review process. On planning the supply of school places our policy is that this is best done at a local level by the local authority, and they are allocated the capital resources to meet future demand. Local authorities have a duty to ensure that there are sufficient places and that high quality education is provided in a cost effective way.Many local authorities are facing falling primary rolls. Funding empty places can represent a poor use of resources particularly where schools with spare places also perform poorly. Working with local authorities and other partners we have developed a toolkit offering practical advice to help local authorities and schools manage falling rolls. The toolkit is available at www.teachernet.gov.uk/falling_rolls.

Secondary information

Type

Written question

Reference

50791; 442 c1562-3W;442 c1562-3W

Session

2005-06

Subjects

Children Pupils Population Schools

Contains statistics

Yes

Link

View this Written question on www.publications.parliament.uk